Thursday, November 30, 2006

No Ford in These Futures

Driving home - in a New Beetle that I believe was hecho en Mexico - I heard that 38,000 blue collar workers had accepted the Ford buyout and would be parting company with The Company.

From the standpoint of  someone who's worked in high-tech and has seen some pretty skimpy packages over the years (mostly  because the companies were running out of dough), the deals look pretty good:

Under the buyout or early retirement plans, workers can choose between eight packages that offer from $35,000 to $140,000 depending on their years of service, age and how close they are to retirement.

One package offers up to $15,000 per year for four years of college tuition, plus half of the workers' salaries and health benefits for four years. There's also an offer that pays 70 percent of their salaries and tuition, both for two years. (Source: Associated Press)

Of course, it's all about expectations and opportunities, and those of us in high tech have had few expectations of longevity, stability, pensions.  And in large part we've had continued opportunities.  Sure, plenty of people I know got sick of high tech and went onto something new. And I know a few folks who - no doubt in my mind - ran into age discrimination and came up empty when it came to finding new work. But mostly there've been new ideas-new possibilities out there. As for expectations, except for the 'these options will make me rich' pipedreams, loss of a high-tech job dashes few expectations. Which is not to say that even under the best circumstances, lay-offs aren't always accompanied by economic, social, and psychological pain.

So with this Ford action, however necessary, there are 38,000 people who are going to have to figure out something new to do with their work lives. My guess is that for a good slug of them, this will be the opportunity to pack it in: House is paid for, kids are grown. Take a time-kill, change-in-pocket job as a WalMart greeter or school crossing guard. Volunteer at the food pantry. Life may not be great, but it's good.

My guess is that another good slug of them will look back in a couple of years and thank their lucky cars that they were able to remake themselves - get a degree, start a business.  Ford will supply the walking around money, and these folks will supply their own "better idea." It's a little nerve-wracking, but it's also exhilerating. Welcome to Work 2.0.

But that still means there's a lot of middle-ground, middle-aged people who are going to be hurt - hurt big time, hurt bad. The money that looks good at first isn't meant to last a lifetime, and will run out faster than you think. The dignity and meaning that work conferred on their lives will be lost. The pride they felt in being part of Ford. The daily routines, the daily companionship.

From a macro point of view, this may well be the best/only move for Ford, just as the export of manufacturing jobs may be a U.S. "win" on the macroeconomic level. Macro in mind, it's easy to overlook the fact that at the micro level there are a whole lot of people who lose. Unless we're related or live next store, we're probably never going to know who they are. The macro winners, of course, get to appear on the "Forbes Richest Four-Hundred" list, buy that new Lexus for Christmas, or high-five and light the cigar when their bet on Ford pans out (doesn't really matter in what direction, as long as you're on the winning side).

Thirty-eight thousand workers. It's pretty easy for the homely little stories to get lost in the big ugly numbers.

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