Igor Panarin's Doomsky and Gloomevitch

I will admit that, every once in a while, I do take a moment to imagine what it would be like if these United States became not so united. My separation anxiety usually has the Red States going in one direction, and the Blue States going in the other. While I would miss my friends and family in Red States, I reconcile myself to the fact that the Blue States get the better of it - the majority of the ocean front  and intellectual property; cultural and financial institutions; technological, scientific, and artistic communities; and MLB teams. Then I remember that those financial institutions haven't exactly been proving their mettle these days. And that, what with climate change, that ocean front property will be starting on the shores of Worcester, or Syracuse, even. And that the Red States have the majority of the military installations - not to mention spring training cites. (Gulp!)

And then I take a deep breath and remember that, even in the Bluest of Blue states, there are plenty of Red voters. And the same goes for the Reddest of the Red.

But things do happen, and it is conceivable, even likely that, at some point, our country will look plenty different than it does now.

Sometimes, if I listen just the right way to Rush Limbaugh, I think that this will be sooner, and that the ditto-heads will rise up, grab their rifles, hop in their NASCARs, and rev up to Boston to personally shoot me in my big mouth, or my fast-as-lightning typing hands.

Most of the time, I think that the dissolution of the United States will be later, as the world makes whatever adjustments it's going to make to population growth, climate change, use of resources, technology, and everything else there is to worry about.

But Igor Panarin, dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry diplomatic academy, thinks different.

He's predicting martial law this year, and the dissolution of the US into six "rump states" before 2011. (Source: Huffington Post - an AP article, I think.)

And who will rise to the top of the new world order?

Why those twin demons of the Cold War: Russia and China.

Panarin, who is also a TV pundit in Russia - well known for its free and open fourth estate - recently gave a lecture in which he said:

"There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010."

(Panarin's negative views are apparently shared by Vlad the Putin, as well.)

Panarin has been predicting this for a decade or so - what's a schtick unless you stick with it? - but he's now seeing signs that The End is Near. Signs include the prison population and the number of gay men.

Things are certainly bad here. While, personally, I don't feel we have enough gay men, we do have a tremendous prison population. But I do find it a bit hard to believe that the United States will completely collapse while Russia rises to the fore. Not that we're perfect, but doesn't Russia have a shrinking population? Doesn't Russia have a more or less third world life expectancy? (Even lower for opposition journalists.) Doesn't Russia have some pretty thuggish folks in high places in their oligarchy? And a pretty darned rotten economy of their own? Sure, they have natural resources, but what else have they got?

Last time I looked, we're still a country that people want to live in, and, although many immigrants (illegal and otherwise) are returning home to wait out the recession, we've still got a waiting list for citizenship.

Last time I looked, other than for Lee Harvey Oswald, the last time that there was migration from the US to Russia was when some idealistic crack-pots went over to live under the glorious Stalin regime. How'd they like what they found? Can't complain!

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In case you're wondering how the break up of the United States breaks out, there was an article on Panarin in The Wall Street Journal a while back that included a handy map.)

Looks like New England more or less lucks out. Sure, we get stuck with South Carolina, but we get to be part of the EU.  The Midwest gets lucky, too - they get to be part of Canada.

I feel the worst for the South, which Panarin has under Mexico, which, I understand, is in present danger of becoming a failed narco-state. So, that won't be fun for anyone.

And don't tell Governor Palin, but Seward's Folly reverts back to Russia.